Over at
In From the Cold, there's a look at the latest on Iran's nuclear weapon program. The news isn't good.
Using data released last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and the operations of its nuclear program, U.S. weapons expert Gregory Jones calculates it could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb in just eight weeks. ... According to Mr. Jones, there is nothing the U.S. or Israel can do to stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons--short of a military occupation. Since the odds of that happening are virtually nil, Jones believes an Iranian bomb is a foregone conclusion.
As the post notes, if these recent assessments are correct, it looks like the cyber attacks and various covert actions against Iran have been less successful than originally thought. According to a study by the RAND Corporation, attempts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capability can already be considered a failure. Here's what RAND recommends.
The goal of U.S. foreign policy should now shift to dissuade Iran from taking the next step of making a weapon, the study says, adding if that fails, Washington should have a back-up strategy to deter a nuclear-armed Iran.
If we couldn't talk them into giving up their nuclear aspirations, it is equally unlikely that we can somehow persuade then not to take the final step. Rather than continuing with our official policy of wishful thinking, we should recognize reality and get ready to implement a deterrent strategy. In the meantime we should step up covert action aimed at sabotaging all elements of the Iranian nuclear program.
you don't want to see what happened to the OLD SH*THEADS...
ReplyDeleteRAT MAN PZ & THE NEW SH*THEADS
shewalkssoftly.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/ratman.jpg
clubconspiracy.com/forum/f29/judgment-day-may-21-2011-a-13663.html
Does this mean that eight weeks FROM NOW they can make a weapon, or that they could already do so if they wanted, and it would only take them eight weeks to build one? I suspect the latter, but I need a bit of clarification here.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on the effectiveness of deterrence? Do you think that the leadership would risk the country's (and their own) deaths to instigate the apocalypse? Do they care about their own lives, or the lives of their countrymen more than their theocratic aspirations? Or is there another option?
"Does this mean that eight weeks FROM NOW they can make a weapon, or that they could already do so if they wanted, and it would only take them eight weeks to build one?"
ReplyDeleteProbably the latter. But I am inherently suspicious of the accuracy of these predictions. I don't think we know for sure.
"What are your thoughts on the effectiveness of deterrence?"
I think they can be deterred from using nuclear weapons by the threat of massive retaliation. But it has to be clear and direct, and they have to be convinced we are serious. Although, I'm pretty sure they would believe that Israel would respond to a nuclear attack with nuclear weapons. Unless Iran is led to believe that it could possibly pull-off a decapitating strike against Israel, and somehow avoid a U.S. response, I don't think they are insane enough to initiate the use of nuclear weapons.
"Do you think that the leadership would risk the country's (and their own) deaths to instigate the apocalypse?"
The country is ruled by religious nuts, true. But I don't think even they are crazy enough to sacrifice Iran to nuclear retaliation. I would not blame the Israelis, however, if they are not willing to take that chance, no matter how slight.
"Do they care about their own lives"
I would bet most of them do.
"or the lives of their countrymen"
No, but I think they do care about their country as a whole.