Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.I'm inherently skeptical of these types of predictions, although it is difficult to take issue with Ferguson's examples. And unfortunately, there are even more possible trouble spots than he mentions in the article.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Major World Upheaval Coming?
Just in case you weren't depressed enough by the economic situation here in the U.S., historian Niall Ferguson has a article up at Foreignpolicy.com called, "The Axis of Upheaval," in which he compares the world situation to the early 1930s. He identifies nine countries "where there are already signs that the economic crisis is exacerbating domestic political conflicts." Ferguson points out that the U.S., which has been the world policeman for quite awhile, is now forced to look inward because of its own economic difficulties, limiting its ability to keep the lid on worldwide problems. Here's his summary: